Inaugurated last Monday as America’s president for the second time, Donald Trump, in his first hours back in office, has signed an executive order to pause all foreign climate funding, and to withdraw the US from the 2015 Paris Agreement.

Threatened by the loss of over $11 billion a year in climate finance and the prospect of mounting climate instability, the already strained foundations of Africa’s peace and security is growing increasingly unstable.

For most developing countries, the Paris Agreement is considered to be a matter of survival. Formally agreed upon a decade ago in France’s capital, it has become a powerful symbol for global negotiation and the driving force behind international climate cooperation.

Catastrophic temperature increase

In 2024, the World Meteorological Organisation’s (WMO) State of the Climate Update highlighted that the ambition of this Agreement to limit the planet’s warming to 1.5C beyond pre-industrial levels was in great peril. The United Nations Environment Programme’s 2024 Emissions Gap Report confirmed just this, adding that this century, the world is on track for a virtually catastrophic temperature increase of 2.6C to 3.1C.

If adequate measures are not put in place, it is estimated that up to 118 million people living in extreme poverty will face floods, drought, and extreme heat across Africa by 2030.

In a statement made by a spokesperson of the African Union Commission, ‘’Africa faces disproportionate burdens and risks arising from climate change related weather events and patterns.’’ Adding that these will cause a ‘’massive humanitarian crisis with detrimental impacts on agriculture, food security, education, energy, infrastructure, peace, national security, public health, water resources, and overall socio-economic development.’’

“Drill baby, drill”

Despite the importance of international climate cooperation, President Trump has officially started the one-year process of leaving the Paris Agreement. Accusing the 2015 global deal of channeling ‘‘American taxpayer dollars to countries that do not require, or merit, financial assistance in the interests of the American people.’’

In addition, the White House declared a ‘national energy emergency’, with changes outlined to boost the production of oil and gas. In his inaugural address, Trump stated ‘’we will drill, baby, drill,’’ declaring a new age of oil and gas exploration which ‘’will make this [America] a rich nation again, and it is this liquid gold under our feet that will do it.’’

Mounting pressure on Africa

These actions have come as a bilateral blow to the developing world, and will add mounting pressure to the fate of Africa. Trump’s path towards an extractive and fossil fuel-heavy presidency is far from conducive to international attempts to mitigate climate change, but instead, will drive emissions that exacerbate climate instability that the likes of Africa and other poorer nations cannot afford to face.

In addition, by threatening to revoke and rescind the climate policy and over $11 billion in international climate finance set up by the preceding Biden administration, Trump’s actions if approved by congress, will prove a detrimental financial blow to the nations struggling to shoulder the costs of climate mitigation and adaptation.

US, Iran, Libya, and Yemen

In excluding itself from this global accord, the US will now join Iran, Libya, and Yemen as the only countries not standing within the bounds of the Paris Agreement. It is a decision that marks a fundamental weakening of the multilateral system, and just 2 months after the unsatisfactory conclusion to COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, there is speculation that others such as Argentina may follow.

But for Africa, it is still the words of the UN Secretary-General, António Guterres that resonate most, the “Climate catastrophe is hammering health, widening inequalities, harming sustainable development, and rocking the foundations of peace. The vulnerable are hardest hit.”

Rising temperatures

Each consecutive year in the last decade has been incrementally warmer than the last, with African temperature increase exceeding the global average. 2024 was confirmed to be the warmest year on record, and for the first time in history, temperatures exceeded the politically symbolic milestone of 1.5C.
Antόnio Guterres has described this recent series of temperature records as ‘’climate breakdown,’’ stating that ‘’we must exit this road to ruin, and we have no time to lose.’’

But as the shadow of Trump dims the light on climate diplomacy, for this crisis, the next four years will be lost. What the longer-term impacts of his administration will be are less-certain, and for the future of Africa, America, and beyond, it is impossible to say.