Yesterday Ipsos Synovate published a new analysis of the election results against their pre-election poll (which showed Raila and Uhuru on very close figures)
1. Full report download: 4th March IEBC Election Results Vis a Vis IPSOS February SPEC Poll Voter Turnout Explains the Difference
2. Full report download: Post Election Analysis (March 2013) (same report but as a presentation)
The gist of the analysis which is contingent on the IEBC figures being correct, and of course the accuracy of their final pre-election report (they draw attention to the 97% who answered ‘yes’ when asked if they were a registered voter) is that Uhuru Kenyatta’s voters across the country turned out in bigger numbers than Railas and consequently polled higher in both his prime areas and in Raila’s strongholds.
This percentage swing alone almost accounts for the lead that Uhuru gained in the election.
An additional albeit small factor showed that the six minor presidential candidates overall polled less than predicted and that those floating votes went majorly to Uhuru.