About 300 million full-time jobs around the world are at risk of getting fully automated owing to the newest wave of artificial intelligence that has spawned platforms like ChatGPT, according to a new report.
According to Goldman Sachs economists, 8% of work globally could be computerized, adding that the effects will be felt more deeply in advanced economies than emerging markets, partly because white-collar workers are seen to be more at risk than manual labourers.
“Administrative workers and lawyers are expected to be most affected”, the economists said, compared to the “little effect” seen on physically demanding or outdoor occupations, such as construction and repair work.
If generative artificial intelligence “delivers on its promised capabilities, the labour market could face significant disruption,” the report says. The term refers to the technology behind ChatGPT, an artificial-intelligence (AI) chatbot developed by OpenAI and launched in November 2022., which has taken the world by storm.
ChatGPT, which can answer prompts and write essays, has already prompted many businesses to rethink how people should work every day. This month, its developer unveiled the latest version of the software behind the bot, GPT-4. The platform has quickly impressed early users with its ability to simplify coding, rapidly create a website from a simple sketch and pass exams with high marks.
In the United States and Europe, approximately two-thirds of current jobs “are exposed to some degree of AI automation,” and up to a quarter of all work could be done by AI completely, the report by Goldman Sachs estimates.
The report also notes that while workplaces may shift, widespread adoption of AI could ultimately increase labour productivity — and boost global GDP by 7% annually over a 10-year period.
“Although the impact of AI on the labour market is likely to be significant, most jobs and industries are only partially exposed to automation and are thus more likely to be complemented rather than substituted by AI,” the economists added.