A specialist in the forensic analysis of elections, Professor Walter Mebane from the University of Michigan in the United States, has published a detailed assessment of Kenya’s August Presidential election and concluded that although there was fraud it was ‘minor’ and didn’t affect the overall result.
What may be of particular interest is that according to Professor Mebane he was originally called in by ‘an unnamed NASA official’ to look at the Kenyan election data.
In a draft paper on Anomalies and Frauds (?) in the Kenya 2017 Presidential Election published today [Link here], Professor Mebane wrote:
“Election forensics analysis suggests that frauds may have been widespread throughout Kenya in the August 8 presidential election but that the magnitude of frauds was small. Only a few per cent of votes, at most, are likely to have been produced by frauds”.
Mebane, analysing the data from 40,818 polling stations drawn from the IEBC website and matched with the Kenya Gazette, found warning signs of anomalies for both Uhuru Kenyatta (Jubilee Party) and Raila Odinga (National Super Alliance).
BOTH SIDES ‘BENEFITTED FROM FRAUD’
He found 18 times when Kenyatta was likely to have benefitted from any frauds and 11 times when Odinga may have done so. The most problematic counties were Kisumu, Migori, Tana River, Nyandarua and Lamu.
“The total number of votes due to incremental frauds across the counties, for which estimates could be produced, is 36,907 for Kenyatta and 25,093 for Odinga.”
The official result of the presidential election held in Kenya on 8 August, now overturned by the Supreme Court, gave Uhuru Kenyatta a majority of over 1.4 million votes over his main rival Raila Odinga.
Professor Mebane said the turnout figures look plausible across the country.
Tables 10, and 11, from the draft paper showing the numbers and percentages of estimated incremental fraudulent votes.