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The Kenya Forum | Opinion Poll: Ruto Leads But Could Kalonzo Be Kingmaker? - The Kenya Forum

May 25, 2022

Summary

Could the much derided Musyoka become kingmaker to tip the balance?

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Opinion Poll: Ruto Leads But Could Kalonzo Be Kingmaker?

Opinion Poll: Ruto Leads But Could Kalonzo Be Kingmaker?

Could Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka become kingmaker?

The latest opinion poll from Radio Africa Group has William Ruto with a slight advantage over Raila Odinga, with Ruto on 43.3 percent and Odinga on 42.4 percent in the presidential election race.

However, Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka polled at 4.0 percent and Mwangi Wa Iria on 2.3 percent.

The Radio Africa SMS based poll surveyed 3,559 respondents in all 47 counties with a margin of error of 4.5 percent.

On these figures it is difficult to see how either Ruto or Odinga can reach the 50 percent plus 1 of the vote required to win the presidential election in the first round on August 9th and could yet see the much derided Musyoka acting as kingmaker to tip the balance.

William Ruto 43.3%
Raila Odinga 42.4%
Kalonzo Musyoka 4.0%
Mwangi Wa Iria 2.3%
Others 1.9%
Undecided 6.1%

Polling by Region

Ruto Leaning Regions

Central: Ruto 52%, Odinga 32.2%

Northern Rift: Ruto 51.5%, Odinga 35.1%

Upper Eastern: Ruto 51.5%, Odinga 27.8%

Odinga Leaning Regions

Coast: Odinga 49.7%, Ruto 39.15

Lower Eastern: Odinga 37.4%, Ruto 35.2%, Kalonzo 17.1%

Nairobi: Odinga 53.4%, Ruto 34.3%

North Eastern: Odinga 46.6%, Ruto 40.4%

Western: Odinga 44.8%, Ruto 38.8%

Nyanza: Odinga 69.6%, Ruto 17.17%

Undecided 6.15%

May not vote 28% (of which 5.1% say they probably will vote)

Will not vote 5.8%

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