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The Kenya Forum | Odinga Leads Ruto 5.7% - Latest Kenya Opinion Poll - The Kenya Forum

June 13, 2022

Summary

4,780 respondents across 47 counties, a margin of error of +/- 1.5 percent.

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Odinga Leads Ruto 5.7% – Latest Kenya Opinion Poll

Odinga Leads Ruto 5.7% – Latest Kenya Opinion Poll

Image courtesy tv47.co.ke

The latest opinion poll conducted by Radio Africa Group as to current voting intentions in Kenya’s presidential election due to take place on August 9th gives Raila Odinga 44.6 percent of the vote over William Ruto’s 38.9 percent, a lead for Odinga of 5.7 percent, well within the polls ‘margin of error’.

The opinion poll conducted using SMS was taken on June 8th and 9th, with 4,780 respondents across 47 counties, a margin of error of +/- 1.5 percent.

Raila Odinga 44.6
William Ruto 38.9
George Wajackoyah 2.7
David Wahiga 0.3
Undecided 8.7
Won’t vote 4.8

The poll suggests that 74.8 percent of respondents say they ‘will vote’, 18.9 percent will ‘probably vote’, 3.2 percent will ‘probably note vote’, and 3.1 percent who ‘definitely not vote’.

Of the ‘undecideds’ (8.7 percent), 46.5 percent are ‘leaning’ toward supporting Raila Odinga and 40.6 percent are ‘leaning’ toward William Ruto.

Opinion Poll by Region (percentage)

Central Coast L East Nairobi N East N Rift Nyanza S Rift U East West
Odinga 29.0 49.2 54.3 52.2 39.2 31.3 66.8 39.9 34.5 44.6
Ruto 49.4 32.4 27.4 29.1 45.7 56.0 19.9 49.7 54.1 38.9
Wajackoyah 3.9 2.5 2.1 3.2 3.7 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.7
Wahiga 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3
Undecided 11.2 11.6 9.7 10.2 5.0 6.5 5.8 5.6 6.1 8.7
Won’t vote 6.3 3.9 6.2 5.4 4.9 3.8 5.2 2.2 2.7 4.8
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