President elect William Ruto

Radio Africa Group sponsored opinion poll conducted October 8th to 10th. 1,000 respondents aged over 18, across eight counties interviewed in Swahili and English. Margin of error 3.15%

Deputy President William Ruto looks to have a healthy lead in the opinion poll with an estimated 57.2% of the vote at this stage but it is not as yet at the level of the bloc vote he received in Mount Kenya in 2013 and 2017 when standing as the running mate to Uhuru Kenyatta.

The strongest levels of support for Ruto were recorded in youth age bracket of 18 to 34 year olds, standing at 61.9%.

The electoral equation is also unclear given the 16.9% of respondents who said they did not know who to vote for.

Marta Karua, the Narc Kenya leader, tops the poll for the best ‘running mate’(see below) with 10.6% support.

Of interest is that 80.4% of respondents said they wanted to see a new generation of leaders.

As for the main issues of concern (see below) expressed by voters it is of no surprise that the subject of the economy dominates, with the high cost of living cited by 73%, unemployment 62% and ‘Poverty’ 16%

If the Presidential election was held today, who would you vote for?

William Ruto 57.2%
Raila Odinga 11.0%
Alfred Mutua 3.8%
Musalia Mudavadi 2.6%
Gideon Moi 1.2%
Fred Matiang’i 0.9%
Kivutha Kibwana 0.5%
Kalonzo Musyoka 0.3%

Who would be the best presidential running mate for Central Kenya?

Martha Karua 10.6%
Mwangi Kiunjuri 7.9%
Mwangi wa Iria 7.6%
Anne Waiguru 7.2%
Rigathi Gachagua 7.2%
Peter Kenneth 6.4%
Justin Muturi 6.0%
Moses Kuria 5.2%
Mutahi Kagwe 4.1%

The Big Issues

High cost of living 73%
Unemployment 62%
Corruption 38%
Crime 27%
Poor healthcare 26%
Poor education 17%
Poverty 16%