Kenyans, some of the most politically knowledgeable and aware people on Earth, follow not only the political shenanigans going on in their own country where a leader of the opposition (Raila Odinga) denies the last presidential election result (August 2022) and has called on his supporters to take to the streets in protest, they also follow in some detail (and some incredulity) a similar scenario currently taking place in the United States.

Former President of the United States Donald Trump faced criminal charges this week in a Federal Court in Washington D.C. that he conspired to overthrow the results of the 2020 election and attempted to ‘defraud’ Americans. Mr Trump pleaded “Not Guilty”.

This isn’t the first time that Mr Trump has faced charges relating to the last US Presidential election, making him, by the way, the first former US president to face criminal charges.

In the past four months Trump has been indicted for alleged financial crimes and on charges that he improperly handled sensitive government documents from his time as President and subsequently obstructed an investigation into his conduct.

Donald Trump and the Republican Nomination

Mr Trump intends to stand again as the Republicans’ candidate in the next US Presidential elections in November 2024, if he can win the Party’s nomination.

So, you might have thought that having the legal book thrown at him and facing a batch of serious allegations, Trump’s electoral ambitions would have taken a sever battering. Not a bit of it.

With each salvo from his opponents Donald Trump’s opinion poll ratings (at least among pro-Republican voters) seem to improve and his campaign funds are bolstered (although much of it may be needed to pay massive legal fees), with some $54 million raised in the first six months of 2023.

Aggregated opinion polling data compiled by the FiveThirtyEight agency and published this week gives Donald Trump a 16-point lead over is main rival for the Republican Party’s nomination, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, with Trump on 53 percent support from registered Republicans to DeSantis’ 16 percent.

Five other candidates, including South Carolina Senator Tim Scott, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley and former Vice-President Mike Pence and former New Jersey governor Chris Christie, could muster only 18 percent of the vote between them.

In February Trump and DeSantis were nearly neck-and-neck.

How so? Why so?

A poll by CBS News in June showed that 76 percent of potential Republican voters in the party’s primary elections see the legal moves against Donald Trump as being politically motivated. 61 percent said the indictments against the former president would not change their view of him and indeed 14 percent said they looked upon him in a more positive light.

An opinion poll for CNN published in March had 84 percent of Republicans holding the view that Joe Biden did not legitimately win the last election.
Don’t Rule Out “The Donald.”

These polling ratings of course refer to Republican supporters. What about the electorate at large?

Am opinion poll for the New York Times published early last week, puts Joe Biden on 43 percent support, Donald Trump on 43 percent and 14 percent of respondents undecided or answering “none of the above”.

Throwing the legal book at Donald Trump may satisfy Democrats and their supporters in the media but it seems it may be counter-productive.